The Fontation IDEA has published a Working Paper in which they have researched the effect of the economy and population growth on cross-border workers.

The Luxembourg economy is intrinsically linked to the border population which, together with immigration, is the main lever in an employment market whose characteristics show a strong dependence on the economy to the availability of this labour force.

According to STATEC figures, nearly 162,000 (nett) cross-border workers cross the Grand Duchy's borders each day to go to work, i.e. 43% of total employment. Despite the large share of cross-border commuters contributing to the Luxembourg economy, the strategic study developed jointly by the Third Industrial Revolution Advisory Group and the Grand Duchy of Luxembourg working groups does not address the impacts on economy, public finances and the environment of a change in the structure of employment at the level of cross-border workers.

However, these impacts can not be assessed without taking into account the evolution of the share of cross-border workers in Luxembourg employment which could significantly change the distribution and use of wealth produced. By engaging in a perilous exercise of projections, non-predictive by definition, the working paper brings an unprecedented scientific perspective to which public decision-makers should not shirk.

In this working paper, the fondation IDEA analyses this issue on the basis of the Eurostat demographic scenarios: Europop2013, which assumes that in 2060 Luxembourg will reach the by-now famous "1.1 million inhabitants" claim and Europop2015 population claim of 992,924 inhabitants by 2060.

In these benchmarks, the border population would have more than 350,000 people by 2060 (it would even reach 384,000 in the Europop2015 scenario). The share of this labour force in employment by 2060 would reach 45% and 51% respectively in the Europop2013 and Europop2015 scenarios.

"What if we change the assumptions of productivity, migration or birth? How many cross-border workers would there be by 2060 according to these changes? What part are they likely to represent in employment? For what implications?

These are issues that are addressed in the discussion paper which is available at http://bit.ly/2r0hlL8