Uni.lu Prof Glaurdić Warns Against Lasting Consequences of Russia-Ukraine Conflict

On 23 December 2021, Chronicle.lu got the opportunity to talk with Prof Dr Josip Glaurdić, Associate Professor of Political Science at the University of Luxembourg, about the potential repercussions of Russian military activity along the border with Ukraine.

On Saturday 13 November 2021, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky sounded alarm in a video statement that 100,000 Russian troops were amassed close to the Ukrainian border. Russia rejected Ukraine and the United States’ (US) concerns that it was planning to invade Eastern European country.

However, on Tuesday 21 December 2021, Russian President Vladimir Putin, addressing his military officials, said that Russia had no room to retreat in a standoff with the US over Ukraine and would be forced to take a tough response.

The massive troop build-up on Russian territory close to the Ukrainian border has unnerved many in Europe and with US and European leaders announcing that strict sanctions would be placed on Russia if it invaded Ukraine, Chronicle.lu asked Prof Dr Josip Glaurdić at the Department of Social Sciences of the University of Luxembourg for his assessment of the situation. Prof Glaurdić has deep knowledge of historical southeast Europe and is the recipient of the prestigious €1.5 million European Research Grant (ERC) Starting Grant for his research project "Electoral Legacies of War: Political Competition in Postwar Southeast Europe" from 2017-2022 (more information: https://elwar.uni.lu/).

Discussing the possibility of a military conflict this winter as the Russia-Ukraine tensions mount, Prof Glaurdić said: "Whenever one has such vast quantities of military equipment and large numbers of forces placed in what is already a tense situation, the likelihood for a strategic or tactical error increases exponentially. In other words, even if the main players - and in this case that primarily means Russia and Ukraine - are not really interested in a military conflict, that conflict is more likely on account of the situation their forces find themselves in. So, I would say the chances of a larger military conflict exist and are not trivial at all. Personally, I am very concerned".

In terms of Russia-EU relations and especially the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, which has been completed but is not yet certified for operation, Prof Glaurdić cautioned: "If there is a large-scale military conflict, Russia-EU relations will sink to a new low, even though they are already terrible. Large scale conflict would damage them beyond repair for a generation, or until the Putin regime ends. Nord Stream 2 pipeline would then not be operational for a much longer period of time".

Taking note of remarks made by Karen Donfried, the US State Department's top diplomat for Europe, who recently said the US would continue to send military equipment and supplies to Ukraine, Prof Glaurdić remained unclear on how it would affect the possible escalation of the conflict. He reasoned: "Russia entered into this in the hope of at the very least testing the West's limits and possibly even extracting concessions that it previously did not have. It is a question for the US and NATO analysts what the odds of conflict are in a situation of brinkmanship like this". He continued that one needs to see the resolve of the other side, in order to back down. Consequently, Ms Donfried's comments possibly can act to dissuade President Putin from pushing things further.

Similarly, the EU and the US announcing "massive consequences" including tough sanctions against Russia if it invades Ukraine, as a tactic to dissuade an armed invasion, is a question for US and NATO analysts as well as for US and EU policy makers, underscored Prof Glaurdić. He explained: "The challenge would be to design the sanctions in such a way that they hit the Putin regime and him personally in a particularly crippling way, without necessarily harming the general population. Because if sanctions harm the general population, what can often happen is a rally-round-the-flag effect where the people - rather than rebelling against the ruling regime - coalesce in their opposition to the West".

Discussing the role of pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine, especially the strongholds in Donbas region (Luhansk and Donetsk administrative divisions), which have intermittently fought with the Ukrainian military since 2014, Prof Glaurdić cited that Russia's interventions in general around its periphery over the past three decades have had limited success and only in areas where the local population was decisively in favour of them. He argued that 30 years ago, for example, many analysts thought that Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina and later on Kosovo would be overrun by Serb forces because the Serbs had massive superiority in weapons. In all three cases, however, they were ultimately defeated through the resolve of their opponents. He affirmed: "In the short run, the Russians would most likely be successful. But that could easily turn into a Pyrrhic victory and a long-term quagmire and disaster for Russia".

On the topic of US President Joe Biden’s assurances that the US will not make any concessions after President Putin demanded legally binding security guarantees from the US and NATO to exclude any further NATO advance to the east or any deployment of offensive weapon systems in countries adjacent to Russia, Prof Glaurdić remained optimistic: "There is always room for negotiations" but emphasised that "it is imperative that the US and NATO make it clear to Russia that it does not run their affairs".

Finally, discussing the possibility of follow-ups of similar military aggression in other regional conflicts, Prof Glaurdić expressed concern: "You can be certain that Beijing is looking at Ukraine and taking full notice of the resolve NATO is showing in not bowing to Russian demands. Any sign of weakness there would be interpreted by the Chinese as a signal that Washington cannot and does not protect its allies". He warned: "That would have disastrous consequences not only for Taiwan".

Recently, the Biden administration announced that the US is ready to engage with Russia as soon as early January, but specific dates or location are yet to be set.

Meanwhile, the Ukrainian military reported four ceasefire violations including use of grenade launchers and mortars committed by Russian occupation forces, wounding two Ukrainian soldiers, on Monday 20 December 2021 and three ceasefire violations on Tuesday 21 December 2021, injuring one Ukrainian soldier, showing ongoing sporadic armed conflicts in Donetsk, Ukraine.