Europe Advances Defence Ambitions Amid Shifting US Role

Europe is currently undergoing a fundamental rethinking of its defence and security position; the geopolitical events of the past month have accelerated this reckoning, prompting bold statements, new defence initiatives and strategic recalibrations among EU and NATO leaders. As the war on the European Union's eastern border enters its fourth year, the need for a cohesive and autonomous European security strategy has become increasingly urgent.

The most significant development came on Wednesday 19 March 2025, when the European Commission and the High Representative for Foreign Affairs presented a White Paper for European Defence entitled "Readiness 2030". The document proposes a long-term roadmap to strengthen Europe's security, outlining actions to close capability gaps, support the European defence industry and enhance readiness for worst-case scenarios. It was presented alongside the "ReArm Europe Plan" - a financial package intended to unlock more than €800 billion in defence spending across EU Member States.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen declared: "The era of the peace dividend is long gone... We must invest in defence, strengthen our capabilities and take a proactive approach to security." She further emphasised that Europe must "buy more European" to stimulate innovation and build a unified EU defence market.

The White Paper lays out a series of priority areas, including defence-industrial collaboration, stockpiling (weapons and ammunition), military mobility and support for Ukraine. It proposes that Member States increase collaborative procurement and urges deeper integration between Ukrainian and European defence industries. This proposal reflects a wider consensus among European leaders that Ukraine's security is inseparable from that of the continent.

Earlier in the month, on Thursday 6 March 2025, the President of the European Council, Antonio Costa, hosted a special summit in Brussels. The meeting was focused on accelerating military aid to Ukraine, as delays in US weapons packages continued to cause anxiety in Kyiv. European leaders reiterated their commitment to long-term support and discussed further steps to ensure Ukraine's battlefield resilience through 2025.

President Emmanuel Macron, speaking at the summit, underscored the need for strategic autonomy: "Europe can no longer outsource its security. What happens in Ukraine will determine the future of European defence." His remarks were echoed by German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who pledged to increase Germany's defence budget and streamline arms production.

Simultaneously, national governments have advanced bilateral commitments. The Netherlands, Sweden and the Czech Republic announced new security pacts with Ukraine this March, bringing the total number of such agreements to twelve. While these pacts vary in scope, they collectively indicate growing European willingness to treat Ukraine as a long-term defence partner.

The UK, though no longer an EU member, remains a key actor in European security. On Monday 17 March 2025, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer hosted a trilateral meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk in London. The parties signed a joint declaration pledging expanded military training programmes, coordinated sanctions enforcement and defence technology cooperation.

Despite this increasing cohesion, concerns remain about the pace and unity of Europe's defence response. Disparities in military production capacity and budgetary flexibility continue to pose obstacles. A recent report from the European Defence Agency pointed to fragmentation in procurement and limited interoperability among Member States' armed forces.

Recent diplomatic tensions with the United States have further reinforced Europe's determination to strengthen its defence posture. A widely reported incident at the White House, in which European leaders were caught off guard by the abrupt change in US policy direction during a meeting between President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, highlighted growing transatlantic uncertainty. Adding to this, leaked Signal app messages revealed dismissive attitudes towards Europe among senior US political figures, reinforcing the perception that Europe can no longer rely on traditional alliances in the same way. These developments have spurred renewed calls within the EU for defence self-sufficiency, as European leaders seek to assert their own power base and leadership in the evolving global order. The disparity in defence spending between the US and Europe remains stark while the US allocates approximately 3.5% of its GDP to defence, most EU countries fall short of NATO's 2% target, with the UK at around 2.5%. Closing this gap is now a central focus of European security discussions.

In response to the growing threat from Russia, the Baltic states have moved decisively to strengthen their defence postures. Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania all announced plans this month to significantly increase their defence budgets. Estonia intends to raise military spending to "at least" 5% of GDP starting in 2026, with Prime Minister Kristen Michal citing the urgency posed by the Russian threat. Latvia is also considering a 5% target, according to President Edgars Rinkēvičs, while Lithuania has already increased its defence spending to 2.8% of GDP in 2024 and plans further growth.

The Baltic states, together with Poland, have also expressed interest in withdrawing from the 1997 Ottawa Treaty banning anti-personnel landmines, arguing that such munitions are necessary to reinforce border defences in light of potential Russian aggression. The proposal has sparked debate but underscores the seriousness with which these frontline countries view the current security environment.

Leaders from the Baltic region have reiterated their commitment to European collective security. In a joint statement with Nordic counterparts in February, they emphasised that peace and deterrence in Europe depend on readiness and resilience: "We are determined to take greater responsibility for European security."

Russia, for its part, has responded with increased disinformation campaigns and renewed missile strikes on Ukrainian cities. The Kremlin's rhetoric has hardened, with Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov accusing Europe of "dragging the continent into war." Nonetheless, Europe's direction seems clear: it is preparing for a future in which it must defend itself, with or without American leadership.

The shift from dependency to self-determination in security matters may define the next phase of European integration. The White Paper for European Defence, the flurry of bilateral treaties and the expanding financial frameworks all point to a continent stepping into a leadership role.