For the third year, war continues on the eastern borders of the European Union, with Ukrainian forces resisting Russia's full-scale aggression - yet, as the United States appears to be aligning closer to Russia under Donald Trump's leadership, the question remains whether Europe is ready to establish a new security coalition.
The first indication of Europe's intent to reassess its security framework emerged from a meeting convened by French President Emmanuel Macron in Paris on Monday 17 February 2025. In the wake of the Munich Security Conference, Macron invited leaders from France, the United Kingdom, Poland, Germany, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands and Denmark, as well as heads of NATO, the European Commission and the European Council, to discuss the implications of the shifting US foreign policy. This initial group, comprising key European nations, sought to address the challenges posed by the US apparently aligning more closely with the Kremlin. A few days later, the leaders of Canada, Iceland and Norway joined the group.
While Trump's position has seen an apparent change in direction of US foreign policy, it could be perceived to be one step in establishing a negotiating position as he prepares to "make a deal"; on the other hand, it has forced Europe to react. It will be interesting to see if Europe can turn this around and now be seen to lead.
During the Paris meeting, President Macron emphasised the necessity for Europe to take charge of its own security. He stated: "The security concerns of the Europeans will have to be taken into account." This sentiment reflects a growing consensus among European leaders that the continent must bolster its defence capabilities independently.
The urgency of this initiative was further underscored during a summit in Kyiv, marking the third anniversary of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Thirteen world leaders, including the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, and the Prime Minister of Canada, Justin Trudeau, gathered in person with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, while twenty-four others joined via video link. This assembly demonstrated a unified front in support of Ukraine, especially in light of President Trump's controversial remarks blaming Ukraine for the ongoing conflict and dismissing its NATO membership aspirations.
President Zelensky, addressing the summit, stated: "Ukraine must be a participant in peace negotiations." He highlighted that the security of Europe is intrinsically linked to Ukraine's sovereignty and stability. This perspective once again reinforces the understanding that European security cannot be achieved without addressing the challenges faced by Ukraine.
In response to the evolving geopolitical landscape, European nations have pledged economic and military support to Ukraine. However, the Trump administration has signalled a potential cessation of US weapons deliveries to Ukraine, coupled with demands for repayment for any future aid. This shift has prompted European leaders to advocate for increased self-reliance in defense defence matters.
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer expressed the United Kingdom's commitment to a lasting peace in the region. He suggested the possibility of deploying UK troops as part of a peacekeeping mission, contingent upon US involvement. However, the White House has ruled out sending American troops, leading to a re-evaluation of Europe's defence strategies.
The discussions in Paris and Kyiv have catalysed a broader dialogue about the formation of a new European security coalition. This coalition aims to reduce dependence on US military support and to develop a cohesive defenсe strategy that addresses the current threats posed by Russian aggression. The proposed framework includes increased defenсe defence spending, joint military exercises and the establishment of rapid response units capable of addressing emerging threats.
French President Macron has been at the forefront of advocating for this new coalition. In his recent meeting on Tuesday 25 February 2025 with President Trump at the White House, Macron cautioned against hastily brokered peace agreements that could undermine European security. He referenced the failed ceasefire agreements in Donbas from 2014 and 2015, which were violated by Russia, as cautionary examples. Macron emphasised the importance of constructing a robust security architecture for Ukraine and called for increased military and financial support from the United States.
Despite Macron's efforts, President Trump did not provide concrete commitments regarding support for a European peacekeeping contingent in Ukraine. While Trump expressed openness to the idea of European troops monitoring a potential ceasefire, he stopped short of pledging US military assistance.
The European Council, under the leadership of its President Antonio Costa, has scheduled an emergency summit on 6 March to further deliberate on these issues. The agenda includes discussions on bolstering Europe's defence capabilities, reducing reliance on external powers and formulating a unified approach to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. "The European Union is ready to do whatever it takes for its security and to continue to support Ukraine. That is why I am convening a special European Council, next week, on 6 March, on supporting Ukraine and strengthening Europe's defence," stated Antonio Costa.
In parallel, European leaders are engaging in diplomatic efforts to manage relations with the United States. Recognising Recognising the pragmatic nature of President Trump's foreign policy, leaders such as French President Macron and British Prime Minister Starmer are employing strategies to align US actions with European interests. This includes emphasising emphasising shared history, mutual benefits and the strategic importance of a stable Europe to US security.
The path to establishing a new European security coalition is fraught with challenges, with the history of the European Union a classic example of compromise and bureaucracy. Divergent national interests, budgetary constraints and the complexity of coordinating among multiple nations pose significant hurdles. However, the shifting geopolitical landscape and the pressing need to address security threats collectively have galvanised galvanised European leaders to pursue this initiative with renewed determination.
As the situation continues to evolve, the international community awaits to see how Europe will navigate its security concerns amidst changing alliances. The decisions made in the coming months could have profound implications not only for the continent but also for the broader global order. Geopolitics is undergoing a seismic shift, a disruption that has been encouraged (by some) in industry, and Europe now has the chance to take the lead. At the same time, the growing influence of BRICs - comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, with recent additions including Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates - is reshaping global economic and political dynamics, reducing reliance on Western economies, particularly the United States. This evolving landscape presents both challenges and opportunities for Europe, as it seeks to assert its strategic autonomy while adapting to a multipolar world order
