Trump Struggles to Explain Weak Economic Data as he Reaches 100-Day Mark

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - President Donald Trump on Wednesday counselled patience, cast blame and claimed victory in the face of a first-quarter US economic contraction and tariffs that have taken a bite out of his popularity, saying a resurgence was around the corner.

The US Commerce Department's advance gross domestic product data on Wednesday pointed to the first quarterly decline in three years as businesses imported a flood of goods to avoid higher costs from Trump's pending tariffs. Some economists pointed to robust consumer spending and private investment as a sign that growth could soon rebound.

Trump and his aides struggled to coalesce around a message about the GDP number, simultaneously saying it was bad because of Biden administration policies but also good because of Trump's efforts.

"You probably saw some numbers today, and I have to start off by saying that's Biden," Trump said to reporters, without elaborating as he referred to his Democratic predecessor.

He then said the figure was due to "distortions" from imports, inventories and government spending, components that figure into the GDP calculation. He also celebrated a surge in business investment that some economists attribute to tariff-related spending. "We had numbers that, despite what we were handed, we turned them around and we were getting them really turned around," Trump said during a two-hour-long Cabinet meeting broadcast live.

Earlier, Trump trade adviser Peter Navarro said, "This was the best negative print, as they say in the trade, the GDP - that I've ever seen in my life. It really should be very positive news for America."

Navarro also discounted the GDP number, saying it declined because businesses were buying goods from abroad to get ahead of tariffs, an idea that clashed with Trump's claim on social media that tariffs played no role in declining stock markets.

The varying explanations came as Trump crossed the symbolic milestone of 100 days in office and polls showed rising public discontent over the Republican's handling of the economy.

A Reuters/Ipsos poll completed on Sunday showed 42% of respondents approve of Trump's performance in office, and 53% disapprove. The approval rate stood at 47% in the hours after his 20 January inauguration.

The share of respondents who approve of Trump's economic stewardship declined a percentage point to 36% from the prior week, the lowest level in his current term or in his 2017-2021 presidency, while disapproval rose 5 points to 56%.

RECESSION FEARS

Fears of a recession have surged in recent weeks as Trump has launched a global trade war, hiking tariffs so high that economists warn trade with some countries - notably China - could grind nearly to a halt. The moves have shaken investors and companies.

Some private sector economists laid the first-quarter downturn on Trump's plate, not former President Joe Biden's, as gross domestic product expanded at an annualised rate of about 2.9% per quarter on average over the second half of Biden's presidency. And some see the stage now set for a recession.

"This isn't going to reverse because of the internal properties of the economy," said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist with consulting firm RSM US LLP. "This is all policy induced, so unless the tariffs are walked back rapidly, it's just simply going to be too late to avoid an economic downturn." He added: "We'll be talking about a recession starting around midyear."

Democrats were quick to seize on the economic uncertainty and lay blame squarely on Trump.

"This is not Joe Biden's economy, Donald, it is your economy," US House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries said on Wednesday, standing alongside fellow Democratic lawmakers. "It is the Trump economy, it is a failed economy and the American people know it."

On Wednesday, Trump on social media blamed sliding stock markets on Biden but later said he was taking neither credit nor "discredit" for market performance.

During the lengthy Cabinet meeting, several of Trump's aides took turns praising Trump's economic policies.

"American families are finding their financial footing again," said US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, adding that Trump was going to make the country an artificial intelligence and manufacturing superpower.

Bessent also said the country was experiencing lower mortgage rates, food costs and energy prices.

Benchmark 30-year mortgage rates are roughly the same as when Trump won the election in November, while food prices are rising at a 3% annualised rate and energy prices are falling by the same rate, according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics.