Race to the White House Nears Finish Line with Trump Poised to Win, as Luxembourg Looks On

On Wednesday 6 November 2024, the US Embassy in Luxembourg hosted a US Elections Watch Party at The SpoT in Luxembourg-Ville, during which the mood appeared to be shifting towards a Trump win.

Around 100 invited guests attended the event, including the US Ambassador to Luxembourg, Tom Barrett.

The lead up to the election

On Tuesday, polling day, polling stations had opened on the US east coast at midday CET (in Luxembourg) at which tens of millions of voters were expected to cast their ballots, in addition to 80+ million people who had already voted early by postal ballot, including overseas voters. In total, around 240 million people are eligible to vote.

Going into the US Presidential election, according to all major opinion polls, both the Democratic candidate Kamala Harris, and the Republican candidate Donald Trump, were tied in both the national vote as well as the seven main "swing states" of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin (which account for 93 electoral college votes); the other states traditionally vote along party lines and are extremely unlikely to show any change this time round. California, the most populous US state, has the most electoral college votes, at 54, with Texas the next, at 40.  

As a result, the polls have put the US presidential election - to elect the 47th President of the US - on a knife-edge, with both candidates seeing it as an extremely close-run race to the White House. While the economy has traditionally been the most important policy issue in most elections, this time round has seen democracy, abortion and immigration as important issues too, with the personalities of the two candidates being the deciding factor for many voters.

With 538 electoral college votes in total, the target for each candidate is to reach 270; achieve that, and they will occupy the White House for the next four years, from mid-January 2025.

The final outcome is unlikely to be realised for several days as postal votes are counted, appeals are heard and recounts are undertaken.

In addition to voting for the next US President, they are also voting on members of the US Congress (upper house) and some states are voting on abortion rights too.

Elections Watch Party

The event included a breakfast buffet with networking opportunities; present also were the ambassadors of Britain, Ireland, the Czech Republic and Poland, etc.

Talking with Chronicle.lu about democracy and Luxembourg ties, US Ambassador to Luxembourg, Tom Barrett, stated: "On this pivotal election day, we honour the enduring values that unite us. Democracy is at the core of who we are — a dynamic and evolving process that, despite its imperfections, grows, adapts and, most importantly, listens to the people. Regardless of the outcome, the strong bond between the United States and Luxembourg, forged on the battlefields of World War II and beyond, will remain steadfast. Today, our partnership extends far beyond our shared history; it is a vibrant and robust relationship built on mutual respect, economic strength, and a shared commitment to global security."

US Ambassador Tom Barrett addressed the event shortly after 09:00 and said: "The American people have spoken… and have elected Donald Trump as president". He added: "As ambassador, we can see the strength of America, the challenges of America… this is democracy at work". He concluded: "I am proud of our nation… it doesn’t matter if you win or lose, it matters that you get up and continue to fight (for democracy)". On the relationship with Luxembourg, he stated that it is built in three pillars: on history, on economic ties (with two-way investment), and on values. "I remain confident that this relationship is strong".

The result

As we awoke on Wednesday morning, Trump was on 246 Electoral College votes, and Harris was trailing, on 187 Electoral College votes. With votes in the swing states of Georgia (which Biden won in 2020) and North Carolina going to Trump, other states falling in line with historic voting patterns. Harris then moved up to 194 Electoral College votes after the New Mexico result was confirmed. With Trump leaping up to 266 Electoral College votes thanks to his win announced in Pennsylvania, he was inching towards the finish line.

Politically, returning to the White House, this will be an extraordinary achievement for Donald Trump who is 78 years old, is facing four criminal cases (he has been convicted in one and is due to be sentenced in three weeks’ time) and other civil cases, and has been linked with various scandals over the last eight years.

The Republican party is also projected to win control of the US Senate back from the Democrats, with results in showing that the Republicans have won 51 of the 100 seats, with just eight yet to be confirmed.