Curve fitting of COVID-19 daily prevalences derived from large-scale testing;
Credit: Research Luxembourg
In its latest report, the COVID-19 Task Force of Research Luxembourg estimated that the total number of cases of the virus in the Grand Duchy could surpass 8,000 by the end of July.
The report, published on 19 July 2020, addresses the potential management of a second wave in Luxembourg. With the effective reproduction number remaining above 1 and based on recent COVID-19 figures, the total number of infections in the Grand Duchy may exceed 8,000 by 29 July 2020 if these trends continue.
Predicted increases would result in additional hospitalisations, which have also been on the rise since the start of this month. The task force underlined that whilst large-scale testing has played a role in detecting new cases, there has been a general rise "in positive tests in relation to the overall number of tests performed". Researchers estimated a range of doubling times of 8.6 to 13.2 days.
If current trends persist, a shortage of intensive care beds could become a reality as early as the end of August.
The report, which was published ahead of the newly announced government measures on Sunday, also looked at the potential impact of measures which could be (re-)introduced to stop the spread of the virus. These scenarios included increased manual contact tracing, a reduction of private gatherings (which have been found to cause most recent infections) and encouraging teleworking once again.
The full report can be downloaded at https://documentcloud.adobe.com/link/review?uri=urn%3Aaaid%3Ascds%3AUS%3A61b8ecbc-d903-4bb8-af3c-6c2fc63bcb56#pageNum=4.
