Christopher Dembik, Senior Investment Advisor at Pictet Asset Management;
Credit: Chronicle.lu, Steven Miller
On Thursday 5 June 2025, Chronicle.lu attended a presentation by Senior Investment Advisor at Pictet Asset Management, Christopher Dembik at the offices of Pictet Luxembourg in Luxembourg-Kirchberg, where he presented his mid-year outlook for 2025 and beyond.
The presentation highlighted the current trends within the main financial markets, such as volatility issues, the devaluation of the dollar, anxiety around Chinese ownership of US debt and the global competition for minerals and rare earth metals.
Christopher Dembik remarked: “We see a lot of anomalies, especially weak signals on the exchange market. There are two elements. There is an element that is on the dollar, which is overvalued and the lack of confidence today of investors with regard to the dollar.”
On the subject of volatility, Christopher Dembik noted that much of this could be attributed to fluctuations in the currency markets. He said: “There were weak signals showing that there is a form of anxiety in the market. Today, we see again these weak signals on certain currencies. Implicit volatility, especially on large pairs of currencies which is more important than on emerging pairs, which is abnormal. So, there can be a risk on the exchange market.” He added: “The problem is that the risk on the exchange market is the one that is the least well integrated. Unfortunately, what happens on the exchange market has systematic implications on all other financial markets.”
When discussing the impact of President of the United States, Donald Trump, and his approach to tackling US debt, he stated: “It is good that when you get to such a level of public debt, it is impossible to actually reduce it. Otherwise, you have to go through austerity and austerity is uncertain. They finally understood that the only way to reduce the vulnerability of the American debt is to internalise it.” He continued: “The interesting point is that this debt internalisation process had already started in 2019 under Joe Biden. Simply put, Trump has brought it much more to the forefront..”
In reference to global competition for minerals and rare earth metals, he observed: “In a world where growth is over, you try to make the most of everything that will be necessary in terms of industrial metals and rare earth materials.” The report detailed the current level of dependency Europe has on China in supplying these materials, such as magnesium, lithium, gallium, tungsten, for a diverse range of industries, including weapons manufacture, pharmaceuticals, oil and gas production and tool manufacturing, as well as solar panel and battery production, cosmetics and nuclear reactor management. Christopher Dembik noted that this is likely a driver behind President Trump’s focus on acquiring Greenland, which harbours considerable reserves of uranium, as well as other rare earth minerals.
In closing, Christopher Dembik highlighted the US’s desire to become “less dependent on the rest of the world”. He said: “It is to insulate the [US] economy, to protect it as much as possible, to eventually project its power when necessary, on issues that are important to them.”
